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Atlanta Falcons to Repeat As NFC South Cellar Dwellers
Three of the four teams in the NFC South have a legitimate chance to win the division. The Atlanta Falcons are the only team out of business, but this year is being considered a rebuilding year for them. They have already named former Boston College standout Matt Ryan as their starting quarterback.
The starting first-string quarterback is a microcosm of his team. Just like his team, he is not ready to become the top of the league. Like his team, he will regularly hit every week. Like his team, he will make costly mistakes. And like his team, he toils in the hope that his suffering will make him better in the long run.
History suggests the opposite scenario.
Since it takes several years to fully study an NFL playbook, rookies typically learn on the fly, working behind subpar offensive lines and trying to read aggressive defenses led by aggressive coordinators. The physical and mental beatings—amplified by ever-increasing media—will break the young bystander rather than make him stronger. Ask David Carr. Or Alex Smith.
I say all that to say this: Atlanta is probably making a mistake starting Ryan. But it wouldn’t be the first time the Falcons have made the wrong quarterback decision (Michael Vick, anyone?).
In the wide-open NFC South, only one thing is certain: The Falcons will finish last.
New Orleans Saints
There are a lot of questions with this team, not the least of which is this: Will Reggie Bush become what everyone believed he would be? Whether he justifies his salary or not, this team is loaded offensively. Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, Marques Colston and a rejuvenated figure of Jeremy Shockey who put a lot of points on the board. But can they stop anyone?
Circle this date: October 26 vs. San Diego (in London). Drew Brees doesn’t have much to say about the team that cut him in favor of Phillip Rivers, but you can bet he’s looking forward to this game.
Outlook: I don’t think this team is a fluke. Sean Payton has put together a team that prides itself on toughness and consistency. I expect to see them at or near the top of the division for the next few years.
Projected Score: 11-5, good enough for the top of the division. And maybe even a win in the first round of the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There seems to be something teams don’t like about Jeff Garcia. He was fired by the 49ers in his prime. He ran out of town in Cleveland and Detroit. And after a Pro Bowl season that seemed to herald the rebirth of his career, the Buccaneers tried to sign the recently retired Brett Favre. If he wasn’t married to the 2004 Playboy Playmate of the Year, Jeff might feel a little insecure.
Circle this date: November 30 vs. New Orleans. Garcia and Drew Brees fired it up in a game that could have serious playoff implications.
Outlook: Defensive toughness will make up for the Bucs’ lack of consistent running. Garcia is coming off another solid season, but how many solid seasons does he have left at age 38?
Estimated finish: 10-6.
Let’s see…a quarterback coming off Tommy John surgery, a star receiver serving a two-game suspension, a lack of a proven running back…not looking good. But John Fox knows how to do more with less, and the Panthers always seem to be at the end of the season.
Circle this date: September 21st at Minnesota Vikings. It should be Steve Smith’s first game after being suspended (imposed by the team after Smith broke a teammate’s nose in a fight). Expect him to have a breakout game.
Outlook: The Panthers have talent, but something always seems to stand in their way. This year it’s several things. Jake Delhomme’s elbow, Smith’s shortened season, a revamped offensive line and a decimated defensive line.
Estimated finish: 8-8.
When your best player gets kicked out of the league and hauled off to Leavenworth, you’re in trouble. These guys have problems. They have a starting quarterback in Ryan, a running back (Michael Turner) who hasn’t proven himself as a starter, and they’ve suffered some key losses on both sides of the ball.
Circle this date: October 5 at Green Bay Packers. This is my Upset Special. If the Falcons can pull it off, they could even turn it into a two-game winning streak with an Oct. 12 win over the Chicago Bears. Hey, anything is possible. Kevin Garnett said it.
Outlook: Bleak. This is probably the worst team in the National Football League.
Expected end: 3.-13.
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